Really strong analysis of the demographic collision we're heading into. The disconnect between European labor shortages and hardening immigratin sentiment is particularly striking, since the fix for one amplifies the other in such volatile ways. One angle that stands out is solar geoengineering potentially being driven not by global consensus but by wealthy nations protecting themselves from migration pressure, which could create pretty wild geopolitical dynamics when temperate climates become artifically maintained zones.
So we’re not going to see a jobs apocalypse. And countries that can integrate global talent into their economies (not necessarily through immigration - through investment for example) will be winners.
Really enjoyed this – it treats demographics as a true macro driver rather than background noise. One thing that feels underplayed, though, is just how non‑incremental the response probably has to be: if the Global South’s youth, climate exposure and material constraints are where the action is, then ‘investing in start‑ups’ isn’t just about finding clever automation or border‑tech plays in ageing economies, it’s about deliberately building solar‑native, materially sovereign systems that let those societies write the next operating system, not just supply labour into the old one
This has to be one of the most all encompassing analyses of changing demographics ahead. Normally the connecting piece with technology is missing. I strive to be the family adding to that .1 kids to the european demographic. Since seeing Gordon Ramsay’s wife, Tana, give birth at 49 I have been hoping that egg-freezing and storage will become more financially accessible. I only mention the Ramsay’s because I was literally unaware that this was possible until I read about them. The only aspect missing from the discussion imo is longevity - current generations show the lowest consumption on alcohol and cigarettes, and the largest on gym memberships. Would be nice to see that play out for a healthier ageing population easing stresses on the medical system and care needs. Not sure if it’s happening at a large enough scale to really have an effect though. Let’s see what the future holds. Hopefully we fall into one of the less bizarre timelines, but I’m afraid I will be disappointed.
Really strong analysis of the demographic collision we're heading into. The disconnect between European labor shortages and hardening immigratin sentiment is particularly striking, since the fix for one amplifies the other in such volatile ways. One angle that stands out is solar geoengineering potentially being driven not by global consensus but by wealthy nations protecting themselves from migration pressure, which could create pretty wild geopolitical dynamics when temperate climates become artifically maintained zones.
So we’re not going to see a jobs apocalypse. And countries that can integrate global talent into their economies (not necessarily through immigration - through investment for example) will be winners.
Really enjoyed this – it treats demographics as a true macro driver rather than background noise. One thing that feels underplayed, though, is just how non‑incremental the response probably has to be: if the Global South’s youth, climate exposure and material constraints are where the action is, then ‘investing in start‑ups’ isn’t just about finding clever automation or border‑tech plays in ageing economies, it’s about deliberately building solar‑native, materially sovereign systems that let those societies write the next operating system, not just supply labour into the old one
Interesting piece!
The Global South TFR might be converging with the developed world much faster than most of the supranational institutions anticipate. Worth a read: https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf
This has to be one of the most all encompassing analyses of changing demographics ahead. Normally the connecting piece with technology is missing. I strive to be the family adding to that .1 kids to the european demographic. Since seeing Gordon Ramsay’s wife, Tana, give birth at 49 I have been hoping that egg-freezing and storage will become more financially accessible. I only mention the Ramsay’s because I was literally unaware that this was possible until I read about them. The only aspect missing from the discussion imo is longevity - current generations show the lowest consumption on alcohol and cigarettes, and the largest on gym memberships. Would be nice to see that play out for a healthier ageing population easing stresses on the medical system and care needs. Not sure if it’s happening at a large enough scale to really have an effect though. Let’s see what the future holds. Hopefully we fall into one of the less bizarre timelines, but I’m afraid I will be disappointed.